I’m 20 years old, and I’ve traded Forex for around a year now. The trading lifestyle definitely has its ups and downs. I remember first starting out and using Excel to find out my potential profits. I remember thinking to myself, “Wow! If I grow my account 3% a day I’ll be a millionaire in no time!” Seeing the Excel sheets and the compounding growth gave me a motivation that I’ve never experienced in my entire life. I read so many books on trading from Babypips all the way to Advanced Quantitative Trading Techniques. I’ve been very successful so far and have made more money than a 20 year old should have, but for all those thinking that this is an easy road, it’s not. It saddens me seeing the countless people getting into trading whether it be securities or Forex and losing it all. People that lack basic fundamental knowledge “yoloing” their life savings on options or over leveraging their accounts and blowing it up within days or weeks. This game requires patience and a drive to learn. You’d have better luck going to Vegas than trying to trade if you don’t put in the time and work. At the same time, I think this is something everyone can do. You don’t need to be especially smart to be successful. Having a passion for this is really all this takes. If you can sit down for 8 hours and enjoy reading and learning, you’re in the right place. Please, I beg of you. Don’t watch a YouTube video and think “I’m gonna be a millionaire,” and throw your life savings at this. The most important advice ever given to me was that you should always be ready to lose everything you put into this. It’s going to cost you time, money, and probably your sanity, but if you can pull it off, you won’t have to endure a life slaving away at some corporate finance firm working 100+ hours a week doing menial tasks for your dickhead boss. Edit: Super happy that so many people found this helpful!
NNFX Traders -- who' started and stuck with VP's secret dream strategy from the beginning? According to him, you should be profitable now
I went headlong into the VP trading belief system about a year ago, worked on it full time for about 3 months after consuming all the material and backtesting, etc....and abandoned it after I had an epiphany as to how absolutely absurd it was. But who know, if I had stuck with it, maybe I would have been consistent and profitable. According to the anonymous VP (who trades with the online "prop firm" Maverick and lives in Vegas), I should have been doing well right now. Are there any forex traders out there who, like me, started on the NNFX quest for the grail over a year ago but, unlike me, found it? Don't see too much talk of him anymore, although he did stop releasing content around December of last year.
CMV: Regarding new economic plan that would create an open system of accountability and without increasing the debt.
Currently there are 250,000 people in Las Vegas, NV that will not be able to pay their rent for September. Let's say a total of $125,000 million dollars would take care of their rent situation. I came up with that number by dividing $125,000 by $500. I know rents are higher. This is for illustrative purposes. This is a very difficult time for just about everyone at the moment. We are looking for answers that we just don’t have. Now is the time to come together as a unit and take part in something bigger than it’s individual parts. I am talking about a new way of financial thinking that creates a win, win, win, situation. Renters make up forty percent of households and thirty eight percent of renters are estimated to be unemployed right now. Eviction notices could be mailed as soon as next month. This is a crisis that will affect the entire country. But there is something that we can do about it, but it takes all of our voices in unity to make it happen. This is a collective action that can be implemented immediately. Now is the time to go beyond thinking out of the box and thinking out of our universe. Big banks and financial institutions were responsible for the 2007 housing collapse which devastated the entire world economy. In 2008, the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act was signed into law, creating a $700 billion program to purchase devalued assets from banks. This was called the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. Later, President Obama would direct $75 billion in funds from TARP to help reduce interest payments for homeowners. That means homeowners received around 10% of the direct relief that banks and corporations did, according to Business Insider. It’s now time for the financial institutions to do their share and make up for the last financial debacle. The financial markets are experiencing all time highs and billionaires got $637 billion dollars richer in the last few months. Somethings definitely out of whack here and I will show you how we fix this. I said we, meaning the millions of people around the world with one voice helping to implement The One Cent More Plan. For any financial movement to be sustainable it must be transparent for all to see where the money is being used and not exploited by a few. That’s why no one organization is responsible for the money involved and each transaction is in the block-chain ledger for all to see at anytime. This is how it works for renters, landlords and the banks. For the purpose of this example let’s use Cindy as a renter who lives in Las Vegas and lost her job and can’t pay next months rent. She has notified her landlord and he is trying to be as courteous as possible, but he also has a mortgage to pay on his apartment building which has ten units. Some of the other tenants have lost their jobs as well. As you can see this is a common occurrence in Las Vegas at the moment. This is where the bank steps in as the lovable George Bailey types which they will become. I know what you are thinking. Their more like Mr. Potter than George in it’s a Wonderful Life. But you will soon see that it’s in their best interest to be more like George in the long run. If you haven’t seen the movie, I suggest you do. It’s one of my favorites. I will start with the New York Stock Exchange. The average daily volume for the last three months was 1,123,989,426 shares which equates to a staggering 22,479,788,520 shares per month. What if for each share an additional fee of one cent were added. This would result in $11,239,894.26 dollars per day going into the The One Cent More Plan Fund. You know at the end of each day the total amount that the fund should have simply by looking at the end of day total volume for the market. Multiply that by the number of trading days in the month and it equals 224,797,885.20 dollars. This is just one market. Now let’s say Cindy is a beneficiary of The One Cent More Plan Fund which is setup for the sole purpose of assisting with rent for those who can’t pay. Her rent was 750 dollars she would receive 500 dollars for rent and nothing out of her pocket. But Cindy wouldn’t get a direct payment. She would receive a receipt contract from her bank with a block-chain transaction number which she can look up on the internet to verify that it had been paid. Her landlord would also receive from his bank a receipt contract only because he owes the bank his mortgage payment. If he had no mortgage the payment would go directly to him. His payment would also be on the block-chain. So, Cindy’s rent is paid for the month of September. Her landlord is happy although he doesn’t get his normal amount of 750 dollars, it’s still better than having to go through the hassle of evicting a good tenant and ending up with no rent at all!! And the landlords bank is happy that the mortgage is being paid. Here is the Ethereum Blockchain Ledger So how much would it cost to do the same for the other people who can’t pay their rent. This is just one example with one market. As you can see there are no real losers in this equation. A one cent transaction fee on every stock sold is not a lot to fight over. Once Cindy finds a job she would not receive the entire $500 for rent only $300. The remaining $200 would stay in the fund to sustain it. And by the way this is a temporary transaction fee until more people get back to work and the economy starts to recover. It is estimated that $21 trillion dollars is hidden in offshore accounts by the wealthy. Companies in the United States have an estimated $2.1 trillion. If companies just brought back that money and donated the interest alone from it this would have a huge impact on the economy and not increase the national debt at all! When you don’t have customers with money to buy your product it will really begin to feel like 1929 again in a hurry. This could snowball quickly. We don’t have time for negotiations over a stimulus package. Big banks and corporations could really turn their image around and be the true heroes if they wanted to be. The money is there folks we just have to make them accountable with our voices. We have seen how social change can happen all around the world. Let’s not miss this opportunity today right now. I haven’t even spoken about the largest market in the world and that is Forex. If we just took a small portion each day from the six trillion that is traded each day it would help us stop evictions around the world and give people hope. Banks are already using block-chain technology as we speak. This doesn’t require building brand new infrastructure. As I just showed you this can be done with existing bank accounts. Payments can be made in seconds. I can send my sister money through Zelle in minutes. Their should be no lag time as to when payments can be made. So who is going to foot the bill for making this happen. The banks of course and without any transaction fee whatsoever. I look forward to all your comments and suggestions with an open mind. Thanks,, chronus80
Trading book recommendations (trading professionals)
Any good book suggestions on options, derivatives, Forex, Greeks(Vega, Theta, Gamma, & Rho)? I want to start trading stocks. I am already a value/economic moat investor. However, I have some extra cash and want to make some speculative trades. Any suggestions would be appreciated. Thanks!
Hey guys I'm a student living on a budget and I just won $1000 from a scratch off. I'm using half of it as tribute to the forex gods so that leaves me with $500 to start building a gaming PC. I did not include a discreet GPU because I plan on buying one down the road so I don't have to settle for a budget card. That leaves me with the Vega 8 APU in the 3200G until then. It's already huge step up from my school laptop's Intel HD620 graphics as I've seen that I can play modern warfare with frames ranging from 30-50 fps. (With this HD620 I am barred from even launching the title) Also I have a 3.5" HDD that I'm currently using as an external for my school laptop so don't worry about storage. That SSD is just for the OS and the more demanding games. Please give me any suggestions on parts and also whether or not my decision to buy a discreet GPU later on is a good plan at all. Thanks! PCPartPicker Part List
Now's a good time for to get a lesson in the greeks you fucking retards. This document outlines the relative risks and rewards of certain trading strategies and how to manage risks along with some basic math and econ. This should be basic for most of you. Why do stocks go up? Because capital growth has a diminishing returns to scale. In the long run capital is used to create more capital generating growth until it balances with capital depreciation which is linear. You can increase the equilibrium capital accumulation by increasing savings rates essentially trading off short run consumption for long run consumption. The implications of this are that less capital intensive economies grow at faster rates than developed because developed economies are very close to hitting the equilibrium point and have to rely on technological advancements for long run growth. Not every economy is equal though, all have differences in economic institutions, government effectiveness and political norms which will also affect their long run effectiveness. Long story short if the government engages in ineffective policies like protectionism, price manipulation, overly burdensome regulations, underregulation, or inefficient redistribution programs the short run micro/macro picture will be hurt and reflected in the long run picture. The US has had a thriving stock market despite having relatively low growth because it has taken the first mover advantage in many industries. Global Tech, higher education, finance, and pharma are all centered in the US because the US policies have made doing business in the US the optimal choice for these industries. For as long as the US is a capitalist nation you can be sure that the stock market will go up in the long run. This is not necessarily the case for commodities or forex as higher growth has typically led to investments in productive efficiency outweighing increased demand in raw materials and exchange rates do not have a long run trend. Fundamentally, the stock market is a good place to invest savings into in the long run. Stocks and exponential returns. Stocks go up so you want to capture the value of price increases. Stocks have a delta of one and a gamma of zero resulting in a linear return to movement of the stock price. Long run capital accumulation, although diminishing, is still exponential and in the long run will return an exponentially increasing return to investment on stock. Linear gains * exponential increase in underlying = exponential gains. But what if things go down? In the short run stocks decrease in value at exponential rates which is absolutely fantastic for investors because exponential declines are diminishing in scale. 10% of 100 is 10, 10% of 90 is 9, 10% of 81 is less and so on and so forth. You may get linear returns from movement but you receive increasing returns to scale gains on the upside and decreasing returns to scale losses on the downside. Delta and Gamma Long options have even better fundamentals than stocks because they amplify the exponentiality through gamma. As an option moves into the money its delta increases creating exponential gains in value. As an option moves out of the money delta decreases, lowering losses. Thus options while having more risk per dollar than stocks have far superior risk returns in the short run. Theta and Vega The opposite is true of selling a call and you're put into the position of wanting to sell when times are most dire and hold when times are good. In exchange you get benefit from theta decay but if you can reasonably predict the movement of the market that's pretty much nothing compared to the gains from delta you could get investing the same amount of money into long calls. Selling also requires way more money further reducing its risk to return. But what about vega? When markets crash, volatility skyrockets. Long calls gain and the opposite is true once again for selling them. Mathematically, buying longs has the best return on risk of any option strategy but higher absolute losses when delta doesn't move in your favor. Selling longs or spreads has a way worse return to risk but you'll lose less money when delta moves against you and it's harder for any one position to lose all of its value. Theta gang isn't more profitable than bullgang, it's less risky per dollar spent. The reason market makers don't play like WSB retards is because they play on margin and the 20-30% losses we typically take and make back buying longs would cause their investors to flee bankrupting them. Strategy implications Longs
If you can reasonably predict positive price movement these should be your go to position to capture delta and gamma. Otm has better delta to price but comes at the cost of worse theta to price. I recommend getting slightly OTM options to balance collecting gamma with exposure to theta risk.
Optimal position size: The total size of spy correlated longs should not exceed 25-50% of your account balance. Only double down on a losing position if your longs get blown up. Your risk return from delta gets better the more blown up your contracts get and exponential gains can bring you back to green.
When to sell? Sell when you think there's a chance risk from theta or vega might outweigh delta gains. Also sell when the underlying moves against you but that should be obvious. Delta goes up the more you go into the money so its better to hold winners than profit take early when possible.
Profit taking: If you don't want bail from a position completely when you profit take consider selling a call to lock in most of your profits while retaining some delta risk with a debt spread.
You will take losses buying tons of longs but if you do it right your winners will outweigh your losers easily.
Selling naked longs
If you're doing wheel, go for it. Selling naked longs shouldn't be done otherwise unless you want to park your cash somewhere and bond yields are too long for your liking or you anticipate a IV decrease. The tradeoff is receiving gains from theta, smaller delta per dollar spent(lower risk) and less options leverage.
For all intents and purposes OTM credit spreads are like selling naked with more leverage.
Edit: The prior statement was kinda wrong. Selling a wide credit spread is like selling a long. There's still a tradeoff with reduced gains from theta and reduced delta.
When deciding between debt or credit make a prediction about whether IV will increase or decrease and whether you want risk up front or later.
Absolutely do not buy OTM debit spreads in any situation where you wouldn't buy the same position as a credit spread. Compared to a long call you're reducing your delta and vega in exchange for the possibility of theta gains as you reach the short leg of your spread. If you actually managed to reach the short leg of your debt spread before expiration a long call would have made many times more money and now you're stuck sitting on your debt spread waiting for theta to decay it to its maximum value at expiration. Every youtube resource I've seen on debt spread pricing is wrong, if your spread goes completely in the money you will not have something worth max value, you will have something that decays towards max value akin to a close to the money credit spread.
The best usage for OTM debt spreads is as hedges where you think the price will reach a certain point at some specific point in the future and you're worried about adverse movements in delta or IV between now and then.
Edit: For what to do with your cash position, you could put it into gold, bonds, bond etfs, non spy correlated stocks or whatever. Low risk theta gang strats are fine in bull markets but don't expect to make real money from them. I'm cash since volatility is high, u do u.
Hey everyone, I have an exciting money talks coming up. Please use the GoogleForm to share any questions or discussion topics you have for us. https://forms.gle/5kPrK7LqerKxZJC48 I'd like to introduce Carley, her bio below. Senior Commodity Market Strategist and Broker, STOCKS & COMMODITIES Magazine Columnist, http://TheStreet.com Contributor, and Author Carley Garner is an experienced futures and options broker with DeCarley Trading, a division of Zaner Financial Services, in Las Vegas, Nevada. Her commodity market analysis is often referenced on Jim Cramer’s Mad Money on CNBC and she is a regular guest on Bloomberg Television’s Options Insight segment with Abigail Doolittle. Garner is a regular contributor to http://TheStreet.com and its Real Money Pro service and is also a regular on the speaking circuit and can be found at TradersEXPOs and MoneyShows throughout the country. Garner is also an award-winning commodity futures and options trading book author. In addition to Trading Commodity Options with Creativity, Garner has authored Higher Probability Commodity Trading; A Trader's First Book on Commodities (three editions); Currency Trading in the Forex and Futures Markets; and Commodity Options. Her e-newsletters, The DeCarley Perspective and The Financial Futures Report, have garnered a loyal following; she is also proactive in providing free trading education at http://DeCarleyTrading.com. Carley authors a monthly column in Stocks & Commodities magazine and has been featured by several major media outlets.
Upcoming money talks! Hey everyone, I have an exciting money talks coming up. Please use the GoogleForm to share any questions or discussion topics you have for us. https://forms.gle/5kPrK7LqerKxZJC48 I'd like to introduce Carley, her bio below. Senior Commodity Market Strategist and Broker, STOCKS & COMMODITIES Magazine Columnist, http://TheStreet.com Contributor, and Author Carley Garner is an experienced futures and options broker with DeCarley Trading, a division of Zaner Financial Services, in Las Vegas, Nevada. Her commodity market analysis is often referenced on Jim Cramer’s Mad Money on CNBC and she is a regular guest on Bloomberg Television’s Options Insight segment with Abigail Doolittle. Garner is a regular contributor to http://TheStreet.com and its Real Money Pro service and is also a regular on the speaking circuit and can be found at TradersEXPOs and MoneyShows throughout the country. Garner is also an award-winning commodity futures and options trading book author. In addition to Trading Commodity Options with Creativity, Garner has authored Higher Probability Commodity Trading; A Trader's First Book on Commodities (three editions); Currency Trading in the Forex and Futures Markets; and Commodity Options. Her e-newsletters, The DeCarley Perspective and The Financial Futures Report, have garnered a loyal following; she is also proactive in providing free trading education at http://DeCarleyTrading.com. Carley authors a monthly column in Stocks & Commodities magazine and has been featured by several major media outlets.
Hey everyone, I have an exciting money talks coming up. Please use the Google Form to share any questions or discussion topics you have for us. https://forms.gle/5kPrK7LqerKxZJC48 I'd like to introduce Carley, her bio below. Senior Commodity Market Strategist and Broker, STOCKS & COMMODITIES Magazine Columnist, http://TheStreet.com Contributor, and Author Carley Garner is an experienced futures and options broker with DeCarley Trading, a division of Zaner Financial Services, in Las Vegas, Nevada. Her commodity market analysis is often referenced on Jim Cramer’s Mad Money on CNBC and she is a regular guest on Bloomberg Television’s Options Insight segment with Abigail Doolittle. Garner is a regular contributor to http://TheStreet.com and its Real Money Pro service and is also a regular on the speaking circuit and can be found at TradersEXPOs and MoneyShows throughout the country. Garner is also an award-winning commodity futures and options trading book author. In addition to Trading Commodity Options with Creativity, Garner has authored Higher Probability Commodity Trading; A Trader's First Book on Commodities (three editions); Currency Trading in the Forex and Futures Markets; and Commodity Options. Her e-newsletters, The DeCarley Perspective and The Financial Futures Report, have garnered a loyal following; she is also proactive in providing free trading education at http://DeCarleyTrading.com. Carley authors a monthly column in Stocks & Commodities magazine and has been featured by several major media outlets. Let me know what you'd all find interesting to ask her.
Ok you skank hoe. I hope you the gene pool good and drink chlorine and bleach
Okay you $2 las Vegas slut. I hope you do the freaking Gene pools son of a b**** run when I was trying to call up to vent you're stupid idiotic low grade $5 wearing hoe just drink some chlorine and bleach and do the gene pool is some good you little b**** I probably won't talk to you for a while because when I called up it was to vent and what instead was you being an abusive little s*** go fuc yourself and shove you pathetic cheesy ass want to be boyfriend over a railing to you c*** Never every see that I have no motivation again you f****** s*** how do you install a favor and go to hold an electrical wire wall standing in water you son of a b**** take your cheesy ass want to be business that didn't why eat after you broke it and been a boring little punk b**** to get where you are and shove it up your ass shove it so far up your f****** ass that you'll smell text Isotoner for the rest of your natural life which I hopefully isn't all that long you self-entitled cow/ Never f****** minimize my issues you little s*** go fuc yourself stick to Forex inside of a power outlet hold on real tight with your mouth better yet shove it up your ass god knows it's fake and enough! enough.
How my friend's new boyfriend recruited her into the cult called imarketslive
I've been noticing my friends back in my hometown are getting into financial based MLMs. One of them have gotten way too into it that she moved to a different state with her new boyfriend who's involved in imarketslive for 5-6 years. A little bit of back story, when we were in elementary to middle school, our families were involved in a ponzi scheme. It was later resolved and sent the three head honchos to jail for 20 years each. While that was happening, her mom was involved in an MLM. Before this new bf (let's call him Fred) showed up in her (Chelsea) life, she was in a 4 year relationship with Justin. I hung out with them quite frequently when I had vacation from university. Both were also students though different schools. They did not have the best relationship. They constantly argued especially since Justin has some anger management issues and Chelsea claims to have OCD (I think she has high anxiety at least). They would hit each other and Justin would emotionally abuse Chelsea. For example, he would go on the side of the read to threaten his own life by running into the freeway. Chelsea would feel trapped and couldn't fully express herself without Justin getting angry. Despite this abusive relationship, they made great sacrifices to be together like commuting 1-2hrs to school to live together. They were not financially stable. Justin would spend a lot on anime stuff and Chelsea would go out a lot. Eventually, they decided to join AMWAY which we all know is not a good idea. Anyway, Chelsea always wanted to have her own business so she dropped out of uni to dedicate her time in being a waitress and a "business owner". Finally after 4 years, she broke up with him and Amway. I thought things were going well for her and she even said she wanted to go back to school. Until... she met this new piece of shit. When I first met Fred (they only dated for a week at this point), I thought he was just a chill dude who had positive energy. Just like a good friend does, after I hung out with Chelsea and Fred I snooped into his Facebook and saw he was part of a financial MLM called imarketslive (IML). The worst part was that I saw he tagged Chelsea in a IML convention in Las Vegas. So I thought, "oh shit, she's part of ANOTHER MLM". And likewise, I told her in person the next day that she's part of a pyramid scheme. Then her response truly disturbed me. Chelsea responded, "everything is a pyramid scheme. This what makes me happy". 🤢🤢🤢 You know I was so shocked. I just responded.. "okay, as long as you're happy. I just wanted to watch out for you". The conversation about IML ended there. My other friends and my parents told me not to convince her that it's a bad idea because she's attached to this new guy. This is what I observed about Fred based on his social media accounts. He is painfully positive. Like he gets preachy about positivity. He does facebook lives to tell people to achieve their dreams by getting wealthy. Because apparently, everyone's dream is just to get a lot of money. Not saying that's wrong at all (hell, I want to be rich too). He also is into those motivational speakers especially if they are involved with IML like Les Brown. He believes that forex trading/crypto exchange can help change people's lives. He tries to sell IML's overpriced apps ($200+ a month). And of course with everything fucking MLM, he uses these emojis 😜💥🤔👌🔥💯 and takes them seriously. So why is my friend dating him? Well, she thinks that Fred is a hard working person with a stupid smile. He also recruited her and now she is an "entrepreneur" #BOSSBABE. After dating for like 4 months, they moved to Arizona to spread the fucking "message" about IML. Now they have a large group of people they work with. They always host talks about how IML is a "family" but weirdly never about Forex trading or crypto exchange. They workout and go to church together. They do everything together which is weird. Chelsea claims she's finding herself but really she's in this cult and behaves like everyone else. I think one of the grossest aspects about IML is how they exploit minorities and encourage them to "flex" or have a luxurious lifestyle. I saw on her snapchat about a recent convention in Dallas and most people were Hispanic, African-Americans or Southeast Asian (like her and I). Most of the higher-ups that were speaking were either those races and had some wort of branded luxury accessory like a Gucci belt. Fred has these Gucci slip-on sneakers and that's about it. It also seems like the group of people Fred and Chelsea are always with try to humble brag about how they used to be poor and now they claim to make 6 figures. Now, Fred and Chelsea constantly post about positive quotes and financial stability advice (lmao). I don't reach out to Chelsea anymore because I do not agree with her lifestyle and I am a non-believer in IML and God. So apparently, I am a negative force. I've known her for 14 years and she became a completely different person because of this stupid cult-like MLM. She used to think things through properly, but I think after her abusive ex she thinks Fred is her light and soul. TLDR; My friend was involved with Amway with and abusive ex and dropped out of school. Broke up and started to live her life again. Met a douche-bag 6 months later who recruited her to imarketslive which caused them to move to Arizona to recruit more people and be more into the cult-like MLM. She doesn't want to talk to me anymore because I do not agree with IML.
I'm doing a tribute to the 24 days of Christmas by going over the financial statements of 24 companies that are considered downrange, speculative, and just plain high risk. The legal cannabis industry already has a ton of risk in it - but this stuff - is only for thrill seekers. All opinions are my own, and certainly not a recommendation for or against any of them, or to buy or sell. I've limited myself to 45mins to each, and kept to most recent financial statements and MD&A's. You'll likely know more about the company than me if you're following them. This is only my reactions with a brief commentary about what I see in their latest financial statements. I haven't been consistent in following them all over the past year: some I have, others not. Ah, it's that time of the year again. The smell of chestnuts roasting....the sights of snack tables filled with shortbread & egg nog....of lights and decorations and presents....and that time when the elves revisit the route on their 2017 Dive Bar Pub Crawl. Some of the share prices have been up and down faster than a toddler's mood. Let's take a look, and see who has been 'naughty' or 'nice'. MPX - MPX Bioceutical Price then: $0.40 - Price Now: $0.87 Recently, I toured their Nevada facility, and wrote their financials up here, and you can find the grow op writeup here. Gonna cheat a little this year, and refer to that. KALY - Kalytera Therapeutics, Inc. Price then: $0.29 - Price Now: $0.065
That very expensive Talent Bio pickup wasn't so expensive after all. Bottom fell out of a contingency payment, expected liability turned into income. Presto!
Note 5. Reads like the script from a Mexican soap opera.
If you decide to read Note 5, have a box of tissues, a spreadsheet, a bottle of rum, and a bowl of popcorn handy. You might have need of all four during it. Or maybe just the rum alone.
That $12MM write-down of expected contingent liabilities in Talent landed them $0.01/share in diluted EPS.
Woooo! They're profitable!!!!..???....
First time I've ever seen income derived from G&A.
A true Dive Bar HOF nominee: the 'secured debenture' remains. Note 7.
Best reading yet: Beetlebung Pharma Ltd. (no, I didn't make that up). Find out all about the brand spanking new contingent liabilities in Note 9.
Ugh. Just ugh. As I said last year, pharma is outside of my wheelhouse, as does financials related to them. Anyhow, I still think the financials suck. GLH - Golden Leaf Holdings Price then: $0.28 - Price Now: $0.13
Woot! Announced a merger with Terra Tech! Great fit! Complimentary businesses!
Fast forward 5 weeks, 'merger' off. A one line press release that says nothing else.
My new favorite: 'Unsecured Convertible Subordinated Debenture Units'. They raised $8MM with them.
Which, happened to be closing 2 weeks after the merger announcement.
That retinal burn I got last year was prevented. I invested in a pair of auto-darkening welding glasses. Smart call if you're thinking of reading any of these financials.
Some of these notes shine brighter than a 50 amp arc weld.
Break even business on sales/cogs. Guess that's a positive. They were negative a year ago. At this rate, by 2026, they might have a positive gross margin.
$220k in intangible customer relationships appeared, then disappeared during the period. Yet total customer relationships remain unchanged at $1.512MM. Nyuk-nyuk.
Spoke too soon: the welding glasses reaction time wasn't quick enough to dim the intensity of Note 17. All I can see is spots right now.
Man, life's too short for this shit.
While searching for a reason for the merger cancellation, I came across a Terra Tech comedy sketch. Sadly, there is not even a mention of the merger 'oopsy' on their website. Seriously, if space becomes available in the Crawl, Terra Tech is first in line. As for GLH....well....caveat your fucking emptor. Eye bleach is/was too gentle a term for this outfit's fins. THC Biomed Price then: $0.80 - Price Now: $0.32
G&A and SBC far in the lead of reported operations.
$8MM write-up of warrant liability. Note 10. Yeep.
Of the $1.3MM they paid for the shipper, 1.1MM of it allocated to patents and trademarks.
Lord God above, protect us. Note 10 here could be a contender with some notes in GLH for retinal burn.
Good itemization of G&A. Hey, gotta say something nice. It's xmas after all.
Ok, gonna take that back. Note 15 detail 3 pages (3!) of related party transactions. I've never seen any company in my life require that much.
$5.5MM in loss carry forwards a positive. If they ever make money that is. Which, at a negative margin and a $12MM loss this year.....
Through disclosure, we know that they pay $25 an hour, a $500 xmas bonus, and 250,000 stock options. Which is pretty good. Qualification is that you have to be a close family member of the CEO, and buy $1,400 in product. Well, there's many different fish in the sea. But I do suspect that this isn't a fish, it's just a sea slug. EAT (Nutritional High) Price then: $0.22 - Price Now: $0.18
40% of all assets intangibles/goodwill. Just like an old favorite xmas song we all know the words to.
S/E deficit doubled, now up to $20MM
Gross margin positive. Well then, that is a positive.
Note 23. Holy Hannah. These guys show THC how it's really done in related party transactions. $5MM of the $10MM in total op expenses for the year to related parties. THC? Pffft. Amateurs.
52 pages of statements. Totally fucking merciless. Sociopathic in fact.
I'd need a hyper-cluster of blade servers to calculate the optionality in Note 21 alone. My apologies, I don't have one. Maybe the elves will find one second hand.
Seriously, the complexity of these statements rivals CGC.
Ok. They have stuff littered everywhere, and it doesn't look like any of it is worth anything. Oh, wait, that's what I said last year. Realistically, to get a good handle on this thing, one would need an Act of God. I waited for a little while, but it didn't happen. On to..... RVV - Revive Therapeutics Price then: $0.30 - Price Now: $0.09
Share Capital: deficit of $10MM.
Office expenses: a lean mean $19k. Whoppingly eclipsed by $24k in research costs.
$150k in salaries.
Thankfully, this thing is only 15 pages long. Given it looks like a one person shop operating out of a phone booth, probably also explains it.
Heavy in options, some design around clinical trials. Nothing much else stands out. Again, pharma and value hunting in research ain't something I know much about. The entire assumption in here is that they'll actually put out someday, or get taken out by a larger fish (hopefully for more than the $10MM they've dumped into it). Anyone investing in stuff this downrange, better have your scope sighted in. Or perhaps you know that the FDA's granting of orphan drug status for CBD in the prevention of ischemia and reperfusion injury resulting from solid organ transplantation is just the shot in the arm this company needed. If you do, please keep it to yourself.
I'm doing a tribute to the 24 days of Christmas by going over the financial statements of 24 companies that are considered downrange, speculative, and just plain high risk. The legal cannabis industry already has a ton of risk in it - but this stuff - is only for thrill seekers. All opinions are my own, and certainly not a recommendation for or against any of them, or to buy or sell. I've limited myself to 45mins to each, and kept to most recent financial statements You'll likely know more about the company than me if you're following them. This is only my reactions with a brief commentary about what I see in their financial statements. I haven't been consistent in following them all over the past year: some I have, others not. The second one of this year.....is here CMM - Canabo Medical Inc. Scratched! Guess there’s another slot open for a Dive in this year’s Crawl! I did take a run at Aleafia’s financials a few weeks ago though. Their ‘merger’ with Emblem hadn’t yet been announced. Alefia ‘Just Said No’ to cultivation by the looks of it. Best choice for them, at least on the face of it. ISOL - Isodiol International Price Then: $11.50 Price Now: $1.71
Has taken cash and turned it into receivables, inventory, prepaids, and fixed assets. Looking good here.
Except for the $110MM added in goodwill/intangibles. Entrance fee to explore the world of LATAM and vape pens I suppose.
Significant inventory build. 50% margin YTD.
That 50% margin - of $9MM YTD, is supporting $21MM of operating expenses over same period.
Wages and salaries have exploded. As has SBC (which has eclipsed it no less for last period).
As has advertising and promotions. Doesn’t bode well for margin maintenance
Professional fees same. ‘Detonated’ applies as an appropriate adjective as well.
Intangibles/goodwill now 76% of all assets. Up 10%. Less than the rest of G&A is a good thing?
Per Note 19, of the $143MM in these as Canadian assets, they have $0 in revenue attached.
US/UK - far better. Provided that goodwill can be leveraged somewhere…..
Kure Corp eye watering in cost. Hella price to pay for a vape manufacturer. $36MM cash too. Sellers weren’t taking (rolling) paper.
Share price blast radius is notable.
Well then. International operations do attract cost (their G&A is bracing), as does business dev. Especially in Brazil. When a company with a net book value of $2.7MM costs $36MM (takes me back to Canopy buying 2 money losing greenhouses with a net book value of $6MM for $86MM at the time). ISOL’s still shopping too. Round Mountain looks like ISOL tossed them a life preserver. One will have to trust mgmt as to quality/fit of underlying assets. I didn’t detail, it’s only a half million, they bought it for what looks like working capital, I assume it saved them from insolvency. A pretty sweeping and broad horizon is presented by these statements - in a company looking internationally. They’ve got a clean professional presence (I’ve seen them at pretty much every trade show I’ve attended), yet, $12MM in op costs per quarter based on $8MM in sales for same….sheesh. Margin relatively static as well. That needs to improve, and sales need to triple+ to support ops. They lost $6MM per quarter this year, sales modestly up Q over Q. IMH - Invictus MD Price Then: $1.40 Price Now: $0.81
Salaries at $2.5MM, professional fees $1.5MM. To the latter, these have been abating as companies get up and planing. Not here.
Op expenses high, $13MM this quarter. Ouch.
Margin seems erratic. Might be operational stabilization, might be a very dark cloud.
Note 15 explains where their cash came from, along with a 40% increase in shares o/s
Warrant strike prices are all over the map. Relatively modest in options. Despite $2.5MM in SBC this quarter, don’t look like it’s going to be as high for awhile. I’d need more time to confirm that.
Related party transactions…sigh. Compelling business reasons are great. Anything less....more than simply poor optics. Can’t tell either way, in any of these without going deep. Note 16.
Getting a rock star as a front end ain’t cheap. Added $7MM in goodwill, from an $11MM spend. Remainder was expensed in sales and marketing. Well then. Note 10.
Note 11 - ran out of time.
Few things here. While I don’t get the warm and fuzzies from this (what the elves are taking these days apparently does give you that & they swear by it), it looks better than it did last year. I have concerns over sales, margins, and the assets in subs. Wrote one off this year. Only 9 months to find out it’s a mutt? Honestly, this company requires far (far) more time to get a handle on. Will do on website. Needs a full once over to be fair. MDM - Marapharm Ventures (now: LIHT CANNABIS) Price Then: $0.92 Price Now: $0.17
50% of assets goodwill. Full Spectrum indeed. Better be some good gear.
70MM warrants o/s
Shares were issued for 2018 include (clears throat): cash; assets; services; debt; warrant execution; stock options; bond bonus; RSU’s; and even some for the treasury. Whew! Note 14
The 10MM warrants issued at $0.20 look like playing catchup. Share price dump has been….unhelpful in that regard.
Revenues anemic, laying missionary on 30% margins. Blech.
Wrote a gain on a ‘bargain purchase price’ regarding Full Spectrum. Sheesh. After booking the rest as goodwill?
Would show heavy losses if it wasn’t for that $7MM up write.
Good disclosure on commitments (Note 16). And in segmented reporting (Note 17).
Note 21 (subsequent events) is busy. Operationalizing the US.
Sigh. Another that needs more time. Where is Quadron when you need them? Nothing stand out - at least in terms of company differentiation or size. Boring. And leveraged. The Full Spectrum thingy hits their financials like landing an 8 ft fish in a 7 ft boat. I’d need to deconstruct that ‘asset’ to get any strong utility out of this. I’d really want to have a handle on it - and management - if I was to go anywhere near this outfit. Doesn’t look unfairly priced. Unless you ask the people who placed at $0.865, $0.70, and $0.50 during the year. Ugliest thing I see is them issuing shares for $0.38 and $0.04 to retire debts, when the share price was $0.80 and $0.40 respectively. If I was one of those in the private placements, I’d be coming out of my shoes on that (Note 14). Even if it was only $40k. Speaks to quiet desperation at one point. Whether there’s a viable business in here….tune in next time for another episode of ‘Dive Bar Pub Crawl’. As I see it….this would take far too much time for the level of interest I have in it. Unless Full Spectrum is a home run….. ATT - Abattis Biocuetical Corp. Price Then: $0.48 Price Now: $0.08 Man, what a difference a year makes. I’ve largely avoided looking over last years’ Crawl as reference, except to skim for major points. This one remains clear in my memory…it looked like a complete mutt then. Only thing they looked good at was producing press releases. They’re still kicking, as is the rate of news releases/month. They have begun paying a formal IR front end, so maybe this will slow down. Or perhaps speed up. Can’t tell. Ah well, latest fins I can find are somewhat old (Sept release. Amended too :( ). New ones should be due pretty quick.
Sales in first quarter of this year: $237.00. Yep, that’s dollars.
Expenses: $6.9MM same quarter. $3.3MM in consulting fees alone.
Note 13 details the consulting fees. The note is also titled ‘Related Party Transactions’.
Share float increased from 159MM to 406MM YoY. There are no words for this.
Net loss for year end, $24MM on $5,900 in sales. There are fewer than no words for this. Like, an empty set of words.
Well, at least there’s $1.3MM in PP&E. Woot!
And….$51MM in intangibles.
And….$10MM in blockchain, via investment in some sort of clearinghouse to provide liquidity for the crypto-tokens they’ve invented (some sort of Active Health/CanNUMUS spit swap).
* “Token burning will also act as a low‐friction method of returning value to token holders”.* Well, there you go. You can rich, and be frictionless whilst doing so (Note 7).
Gonna stop there. I’ve got a stitch in my side, and a headache. If I ever get my hands on the mug who suggested this one….the elves heads are collectively a ‘bag of cats’, and the little buggers staged a walkout. They’re outside singing Woody Guthrie songs and burning pallets. This totally sucks. As does Abattis’ financials. They offer low friction on tokens perhaps, but any cash put toward this thing will probably have the friction of a canvas bag re-entering the atmosphere. Poof. My personal choice for ‘Dive Bar of the Year’. Curiously, it’s not an easy title to take. IN - Inmed Pharmacuetical Price Then: $1.47 Price Now: $0.37
Plenty of cash. Not much change in assets, or anything else for that matter over the year.
Expenses flat, R&D up, as is SBC. Nothing earth-shaking
Easy to look at from B/S - Income Statement perspective. Loving pharma co’s in this regard.
Active in placements. Steady amount of funds coming in, even if down-raising. Shows interest.
50MM in options and warrants o/s. Share price trajectory has taken a lot of them out of play for the moment.
R&D expenses mainly salaries, nominal amount to patents. In pharma, investors need to have a handle on viability of the research, quality of the management, etc. doing these is kinda fun as the financials are a dream compared to… oh….an ‘Abattis’ let’s say.
TGIF - Friday Night Inc. Price Then: $1.20 Price Now: $0.37 I looked at these guys as recently as July. I also met up with them at MJBizCon in Vegas. I asked for a look at their facility….they never did get back to me. I won a laptop bag and some nice swag at the booth on a business card ‘draw’, it didn’t help getting a tour tho. I really wanted to see it…the financials got me curious in last year’s Crawl, and I strongly get the sense I’m missing something of note in them. Seems an incomplete story tbh. Maybe just some mild indigestion. And….for a region notorious for $70 eights in top shelf, I was also curious why they were recording sub $5 revenue on grams. Got the annuals now….
$6MM in gross margin, $11MM in expenses. Ramping.
Forex and translation (assuming Fx) $1.1MM. A correction, or, an acquisition conversion to native currency.
Modest forecast for sales price per gram ($4.16). I really want to know why their sales price sucks this hard. Outside of scope for the Crawl (time, and, I need an answer from the company. Guys?)
Good disclosure largely, Notes 8, 7, and 11
Writing up forex accretion on goodwill, ptooey.
Still 22MM of in-the-money warrants and options. ~=$4MM live.
Marginal adjustments to cap structure through secured lending. Marginal though.
Related party transactions relatively good compared to peerset.
More good disclosure in segmentation (Note 19).
There’s a reason price softening is lower in this one compared to others - at least they are in production & they have a product suite (at least in their booth at MJBizCon). No retail frontage (?) would explain the shitty sales price. I have somewhat of a soft spot for Canadian business, and I’d hope that relatively early movers would be seeing this start to ramp. As my trip to the US revealed - the US is a hyper-competitive compartmentalized environment. I do believe vertical integration is requisite for a company with this breadth and spend. Gonna sit in on the next call on these guys, and try and get a (the) story. Looks like false starts in build out, and challenges ramping. Sales are growing. They don’t look to be peddling a ’take me out’ story or stance…but….I have blind spots on this one. Because of Abattis, the elves are now wearing balaclavas and carrying home-made gas masks. Told me they are going for a stroll. I gave the RCMP a heads up. Gotta keep up good community relations and all.
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